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Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Morning Discussion... I'm sorry about the math!

So, we've got a Cat 2 hurricane 950 miles from Jacksonville, about to plow through the Bahamas and make some kind of turn in the process.

((sips coffee, looks at NHC forecast, spits coffee onto computer monitor))

That's what made me sppiittt meey coffee everywhere... sorry, my keys are sticking... one sec.

That's better.

So this image is much different than the image 24 hours ago that had Jacksonville in the center of the track... and then 18 hours ago that had Charleston in the center of the track.

And if you remember, my original forecast was for somewhere around Charleston (my exact words were between Savannah and Charleston, Edisto).

So you're probably wondering if I'm going to adjust my forecast.

No, I'm sticking by my original call... however, with history punching me in the gut right now, I must admit that a coastal NC hit looks very likely right now as well. I mean, how many times have we watched these re-curves do this? Example:

Dennis (1999, strange track, but had recurve)
I'm done listing now... point is, it happens.

But think about it like this, the track all depends on computer models! The cone you see up there is derived from a consensus of computer models. I mean, I understand that computer models are great, but are we forgetting what happened a couple weeks ago with Emily? that thing was going to emerge and hit the US too... but it died.

Granted... it was much weaker, had a much different track, and had to deal with Hispanola... yikes. But we've got a lot to consider as this storm makes its way through the Bahamas. I still think both Carolinas and Georgia must be major hurricane ready, as in ready to walk out the door with a bag, dog and guitar.

For us here in Northeast Florida, let's be ready for the potential for some big winds on Friday, perhaps some bridge closures (thanks Mike Prangley) and power outages. But we won't be running for the hills here.

Southeast Georgia: have a shave kit and couple pants and shirts packed just in case this forecast shifts.

We'll talk again later... we need to watch trough moving into eastern US... and subtropical ridge... those will determine forward speed and steering of this thing. And yes, those too can shift... which would change the computer model input...

Algebra time...

2x(3y+z) =
x = 1
y = 1
z = 1

you get 8.

Now let's just change the numbers slightly... each variable equals 2...

Plug in 2... you get 32.... big difference in output, with slight change in input. That's the most basic equation ever with only 3 simple variables.

Imagine working an equation like using something as fluid and wacky as our atmosphere... we're talking thousands of different variables that can change vastly each second...

And the computer models are run every 6 hours....

Does anyone know what happens when you change computer model input?

You get a different output...

Talk soon...

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