Morning Discussion... I'm sorry about the math!

So, we've got a Cat 2 hurricane 950 miles from Jacksonville, about to plow through the Bahamas and make some kind of turn in the process.

((sips coffee, looks at NHC forecast, spits coffee onto computer monitor))

That's what made me sppiittt meey coffee everywhere... sorry, my keys are sticking... one sec.

That's better.

So this image is much different than the image 24 hours ago that had Jacksonville in the center of the track... and then 18 hours ago that had Charleston in the center of the track.

And if you remember, my original forecast was for somewhere around Charleston (my exact words were between Savannah and Charleston, Edisto).

So you're probably wondering if I'm going to adjust my forecast.

No, I'm sticking by my original call... however, with history punching me in the gut right now, I must admit that a coastal NC hit looks very likely right now as well. I mean, how many times have we watched these re-curves do this? Example:

Earl
Floyd
Bertha
Dennis (1999, strange track, but had recurve)
I'm done listing now... point is, it happens.

But think about it like this, the track all depends on computer models! The cone you see up there is derived from a consensus of computer models. I mean, I understand that computer models are great, but are we forgetting what happened a couple weeks ago with Emily? that thing was going to emerge and hit the US too... but it died.

Granted... it was much weaker, had a much different track, and had to deal with Hispanola... yikes. But we've got a lot to consider as this storm makes its way through the Bahamas. I still think both Carolinas and Georgia must be major hurricane ready, as in ready to walk out the door with a bag, dog and guitar.

For us here in Northeast Florida, let's be ready for the potential for some big winds on Friday, perhaps some bridge closures (thanks Mike Prangley) and power outages. But we won't be running for the hills here.

Southeast Georgia: have a shave kit and couple pants and shirts packed just in case this forecast shifts.

We'll talk again later... we need to watch trough moving into eastern US... and subtropical ridge... those will determine forward speed and steering of this thing. And yes, those too can shift... which would change the computer model input...

Algebra time...

2x(3y+z) =
Assume:
x = 1
y = 1
z = 1

you get 8.

Now let's just change the numbers slightly... each variable equals 2...

Plug in 2... you get 32.... big difference in output, with slight change in input. That's the most basic equation ever with only 3 simple variables.

Imagine working an equation like using something as fluid and wacky as our atmosphere... we're talking thousands of different variables that can change vastly each second...

And the computer models are run every 6 hours....

Does anyone know what happens when you change computer model input?

You get a different output...

Talk soon...
Mahalo,
Lew

Turnerloose On A Shrimp Boat... And Irene

I grew up on a farm. Well, actually I was born in Savannah and the first couple years of my life were on a "farm" near Darien, Ga.

However, the farm I'm refering to is the marsh and tidal creeks. The crops are endless, and if done right, you can make some money harvesting certain items.

The edge of the world's largest farm... the ocean.

One of the staple crops of the sea farmer is shrimp. And just like the man who picks oranges, grows corn or shells peanuts, the shrimper can't afford to take a day off when there's crop to pick. And now seems to be the time. Instead of a tractor... the shrimper has a diesel trawler:

She thinks my shrimp boat's sexy...

uh, not the same ring to it, but ok...

My travels took me to Brunswick today, to speak with a few shrimp boat captains who are actually packing up their boats, loading down with ice to drag net a few more times before Irene gets too close.

One shrimp boat owner, Diane Adams told me she thinks the shrimping will be best right before and right after the storm passes. It's going to be bumpy as all get out on the ocean, but she says she's going to spend 48 hours shrimping, about 7 miles off shore.

Beautiful evening at the docks Monday, not going to be the case by the end of the week.

I'm trying to think of a scientific explanation behind the legend. I've heard fishermen and shrimpers tell me that it gets good right before storms come by. I mean, this theory made these two guys millionares overnight:

So what could it be? Perhaps a little bit of upwelling cause by the disturbance of the sea surface by the storm. All the nutrient rich, cooler water rushes up from all the turbulance and the shrimp get caught up in the action.

There's also the idea of lower pressure at the surface as well. A hurricane being an intense and deep area of low pressure, might create a more favorable environment (a happy, more comfortable place) for shrimp to rise up and get swallowed up by a net.

Maybe it's just so loud and violent that they just want to come up and see what the heck all the racket is about. Those are my guesses... though I probably wouldn't be brave enough to test the theory. I did see The Perfect Storm, and if George Clooney and Marky Mark can't make it out alive, then what hope do I have?


ON TO IRENE...

I'm sticking with my forecast from earlier... especially in the intensity and timing of it all. Perhaps a little north of Edisto for landfall... but definitely Carolinas (I think the Southern variety).

If you missed my earlier thoughts, click here.

As for Jacksonville, the First Coast, and Southeast Georgia... Friday could be very bumpy as the major hurricane makes its way off our shores. We're talking for 50 mph wind gusts at the beach and 25 foot seas. 25 FOOT SEAS... now that's a rough day on the farm.

The First Coast News weather page has the seven day forecast... with a big focus on Friday. 11pm will bring us another batch of data from the National Hurricane Center.

Here's a screen cap of the seven day...

Those numbers under the percentage chance of rain are wind forecasts in MPH... so starting Thursday we could get 30mph gusts, Friday 50... and then things begin to get better from there.

We'll talk later,

Mahalo,

Lew

Turnerloose on Irene...

So we've got our first hurricane of the season... alrighty then.

My only source of news this morning has been my twitter feed (@LewTurner if you'd like to follow)... I haven't turned on my TV yet, and have been oggling weather maps for hours, so I haven't had a chance to go to the local or network sites yet...

However, it is clear that Hurricane Irene is one of the largest topics of interest this morning, as apparent by it's top status as a trending topic on twitter.

The #Irene hashtag is bombing... much like the surface pressure of Irene overnight... but we'll get into all that in a second.

I mentioned this in one of my tweets earlier in the morning... that it seems like every TV station is tweeting out that Irene will probably hit in there geographic region. Whether it's NC stations, or west coast Florida stations... and depending on the model they'd like to reference, they are absolutely not wrong.

Let me say this first and foremost... in a situation where my forecast contradicts Tim Deegan, I am trumped. He's got the years of experience, he's the chief, he's got the final say... and is most likely right.

However, I am going to get my feet wet a little by giving my first forecast/impression of what Hurricane Irene will do.

I know it's a bit silly to get hyper-specific, but this blog is silly... haven't you been reading it? Come on, I wrote about having a battle with Oprah!

So I'll stick my neck out... I'm going to get very specific here... I'm going to give you intensity forecast and an exact location and general time of Irene landfall (where the eye wall comes ashore), as well as other areas that are going to feel those impacts and what those impacts will be... I'm using several numerical models, trends this season, and real time observations to generate this forecast.

Hint: if you want to skip all the blah, blah technical jargon... just flip straight to the bottom and I'll sum it all up for ya. THANKS!!

Yep, it'll all be in writing... for two reasons...

1. To go on record...
2. To show (if I happen to be wrong), that many times guidance is WAY off when it come to the day 4 and 5 forecast... NHC stats show a 200-250 mile margin of error when it comes to that many days out. So we can all laugh at the silly weatherman later.

In the meantime... here we go:

I think Irene is going to be a major hurricane at landfall... I'm talking a strengthening Cat 3 storm. It's going to miss the mountains of Hispanola and going to be moving through some very warm water. Upper level conditions (according to ONE MODEL) seem very favorable with an upper level anti-cyclone (high pressure) situated over Irene Tuesday and Wednesday as it emerges from all the rocks of the islands and into relatively open water. Here's the latest (as of this writing) GFS for Wednesday afternoon, paying closer attention to the 200mb chart, that's way up there... you can see wind barbs pointing in a clockwise flow above our storm.

That upper level high, over the surface low vents the storm, helping it grow.

So conditions seem right for this one to be strong... winds in the 120 mph range, but, again, getting stronger at landfall.

So where and when...

When is fairly easy, so we'll knock that out now... Saturday morning. Done and done.

No how bout where?

ridge shifts into western atlantic midweek... trough tries to get in here by Thursday... hmmmmm... sorry just thinking aloud here...

I really think, given the trends and how steering currents are looking, that this storm will recurve, so I think south Florida and the west coast should be in the clear, though they are certainly still in the cone. They have every reason to tell me I'm way off base etc...etc.

So, that leaves an area from Jacksonville to Myrtle Beach that I think we should focus on...

Historically, Jacksonville and the rest of the Ga-Fl bight get missed... I'm not going to buck that trend here. I think it recurves and does not make a direct landfall on Jacksonville. I do however think we will get hurricane conditions here... with some very strong winds and rain as Irene skirts our coastline late Friday night into Saturday morning.

This is not going to be a Wilmington, outter banks storm... at least I don't think so.

So that leaves an area between Savannah, Georgia and Myrtle Beach.

Maybe I'm drawing a wrong conclusion here... but this storm reminds me a lot of Hurricane Floyd, although Floyd tracked in September and a couple hundred miles to the north. Floyd stayed north of the Bahamas, made that massive recurve, and then plowed into NC.

Keeping that in mind... since Irene is a little further south now... I think landfall will occur a little further south. How bout we go down the coast a couple hundred miles.

How about Edisto,SC? That's what I'm sticking with for now at least. I'm not going to say Beaufort or Fripp Island, SC that's where I grew up and where my parents work and live (though what's a couple of miles between friends?)... but I really an concerned about a SC landfall this weekend.

So there we go... my official (unofficial) primary Irene forecast... I will probably change this 25 times before tomorrow... but what the heck... this was fun right?

IF YOU ARE SCROLLING DOWN STOP HERE:

Concise forecast for scrollers:

Irene makes landfall Saturday morning as a strengthening Cat 3 Hurricane (120mph winds) between Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC (I'm picking Edisto, SC as the spot Jim Cantore sets up shop), Jacksonville, the First Coast and SE Georgia will get strong tropical winds (perhaps hurricane strength gusts), some flooding and will deal with beach erosion and very large surf.


There you have it folks... DISCLOSURE: I'm sure this will come back to bite me in my ---, please be gentle and remember my boss and chief meteorologist Tim Deegan is the one with the true final say and real official First Coast News forecast.

Just putting my name in the race.

-My God, what have I done?

Mahalo,
Lew

Turnerloose At NASA: That Just Happened...

First of all, I say this with all the respect I have in my bones, please no one take the following the wrong way.

I have full faith in highly trained meteorologists... I feel like I do a decent job of forecasting, as well.

However, the guys at NASA are the best in the world. That's not an exaggeration. That's a fact based on the amount of training, screening, and expensive (MEGA expensive and absolutely cutting edge) equipment they have.

For pete's sake, they put the weather satellites in space.

But, how did that 70% chance of storms work out? The running joke I get every single time I meet someone new, or hang out with my Uncle Jerry is: "You weather guys are the only people that can get paid and be wrong half the time."

First of all, that never gets old.

Second, I wonder if they'll get any friendly joking from the launch director, of maybe Charles Bolden will come over with a jab at the next NASA mixer.

I doubt it. I'm pretty sure there is no joking in NASA.

But let me say this, I don't think there is a happier set of meteorologists on the planet than the folks at KSC. They're just fine with the 30% Go forecast. I am too.

And here's the thing. They may not be wrong. Storms could start popping on the Space Coast any minute. Timing was everything.

So... with all that said, what a great launch. What a great experience.

The view from the beach was good. If you have never seen a launch in person, the visuals are friggin amazing... but the vibrations (more than just noise) literally takes your breath away, and you don't really feel it until a couple of minutes later.

Man that's so cool... the next thing is going to have to be even cooler.

Now they're off to load up the ISS with supplies that should last them a year or so up there. Wild.

Mahalo,
Lew

Turnerloose At NASA: The Moment of Truth...

The astronauts are sleeping. Have been since 8pm.

They're supposed to wake up at 4am to start throwing stuff in a suitcase. I truely hope they were away from facebook or youtube when NASA posted this video to its facebook page around 6pm.

That, my friends, is a lightning bolt hitting a water tower on launch pad 39A... the pad that Atlantis currently sits, waiting to be blasted into low orbit.

According to NASA it pierced the earth some 515 feet away from the shuttle. 

All the genius scientists and engineers inspected the site and said no damage was done to the pad or the shuttle or any of the literally one million moving parts that have to synchronize to send the vehicle screaming out of the atmosphere in a firey rodeo.    

However, is i'm an astronaut and I see that, I'm thinking to myself "That's a little close for comfort..."

HA... nothing like that has ever crossed these minds.

Good luck Atlantis... let's see a launch!

Turnerloose At NASA... Thoughts on the Weather

This is a picture of the 3 page, small font, front and back weather procedure for a shuttle launch.

I will not go into everything, seeing as how the "Near Freezing Temperatures" section won't apply.

Basically what we need to worry about as we get to launch day will be thunderstorms and rain.

Thunderstorms can't be within ~30 miles of the launch site... they'll scrub right away if storms are popping up around launch time which is around 11:26 a.m. Friday.

They'll also scrub if there is the potential for rain at any of the emergency landing sites, the shuttle can't land in rain (but the NASA weather team doesn't feel like that should be an issue on launch day).

So that leaves us with the big issue: The timing of thunderstorms.

As we all know, the heat of the afternoon is when things get popping here in the southeast, but especially in Florida, where we're dealing with not one, but two seabreeze fronts. And where you get seabreeze collision, you get uplift and you get the big, tall puffy clouds that make rain and a whole lotta electricity. (See also: Florida, Lightning Capital of the Country).

When will the seabreeze develop? Well that depends on how quickly we heat up that day, as well as interaction with an "easterly wave." So while seabreezes may spark a few tstorms around 3:00 or 4:00 on many occasions, that wave may push it a little earlier. Which could mean lightning around launch.

As of this blogging, the NASA weather forecast, which is given by the U.S. Air Force Range Weather Operations Facility just down the road from Kennedy, is calling for a 60% chance of thunderstorms at the time of launch.

That translates into a 60% chance of delay for the final shuttle launch.

The better option would be Saturday morning.

The best option, though, looks to come on Sunday. Drier air will be punching into the Space Coast.

So, if we are a no-go on Friday, it looks like at worst we're talking about a Sunday departure for Atlantis and her crew.

But, come on, it's just a 60% chance, right?

Turnerloose At NASA...

Self portraits are an art that needs to be lost 

I took a very thorough and extensive shower this morning. But before you go hollerin’ “T-M-I, Lewis,” just wait a few sentences.

I was going to NASA, and knew the clearance procedure would be equally thorough/extensive. Surprisingly I was wrong… but we’ll talk about that later.

Today I took my first ever trip into Kennedy Space Center. I drove down I-95 from Jacksonville most of the way. But decided I had seen enough depressing concrete and turned off at Exit 220 – Titusville.

I figured I’d take Highway 1 down to the KSC media gate to get my pass, that way I could see the guts of some of the towns , including Titusville itself, but some of the “Port” towns as well.

You ever drove through a place and feel like you went back in time?

Every time I drive through my beloved Florida Keys (the upper ones especially) I feel like I’m going through towns that the 1990s and 2000s forgot about. I mean that in a good way.

I almost feel like driving the Space Coast on Highway 1, I was traveling through some towns that the 1980s forgot about as well.

Old motel after old motel for the 15 or so miles from Titusville to Cocoa.

One was called the Apollo Inn, and it was most definitely built between 1963-1972 (years of the Apollo space program).



The Apollo Inn as I'm driving down U.S. 1



I mention this mainly because it’s a part of the country that exploded in the early 60s, with the manned space-flight program. People flooded into these towns, paid top dollar to eat fried seafood, buy cheesy t-shirts, and spend the night at what was then top notch lodging.

An old seafood shack was gutted. I saw only one open t-shirt store.

What happened? Did the space program lose its shebang, its tourist-attracting luster?

“Awwww, there will always be another rocket, or shuttle going up,” someone may say.

With the reality that there in fact will not be another shuttle launch, at least not how we know it, a million people are expected to flood into these towns. The Apollo Inn has NO VACANCY this week, as does every hotel/motel/condo from here to Epcot.

One last hurrah guys… then what? Then what’s going to happen to these towns that are already quite sleepy?

I’m not trying to take a political stand on the fiscal sense the shuttle program makes, I’m just going to miss it. And after a trip down U.S. Highway 1 from Titusville to Cocoa Beach, I’d say every town in between will miss it too. I’ll be interested to see if the 2010s take Exit 220, stop by, look around and then hop right back on I-95.