Turnerloose At NASA: That Just Happened...

First of all, I say this with all the respect I have in my bones, please no one take the following the wrong way.

I have full faith in highly trained meteorologists... I feel like I do a decent job of forecasting, as well.

However, the guys at NASA are the best in the world. That's not an exaggeration. That's a fact based on the amount of training, screening, and expensive (MEGA expensive and absolutely cutting edge) equipment they have.

For pete's sake, they put the weather satellites in space.

But, how did that 70% chance of storms work out? The running joke I get every single time I meet someone new, or hang out with my Uncle Jerry is: "You weather guys are the only people that can get paid and be wrong half the time."

First of all, that never gets old.

Second, I wonder if they'll get any friendly joking from the launch director, of maybe Charles Bolden will come over with a jab at the next NASA mixer.

I doubt it. I'm pretty sure there is no joking in NASA.

But let me say this, I don't think there is a happier set of meteorologists on the planet than the folks at KSC. They're just fine with the 30% Go forecast. I am too.

And here's the thing. They may not be wrong. Storms could start popping on the Space Coast any minute. Timing was everything.

So... with all that said, what a great launch. What a great experience.

The view from the beach was good. If you have never seen a launch in person, the visuals are friggin amazing... but the vibrations (more than just noise) literally takes your breath away, and you don't really feel it until a couple of minutes later.

Man that's so cool... the next thing is going to have to be even cooler.

Now they're off to load up the ISS with supplies that should last them a year or so up there. Wild.

Mahalo,
Lew

Turnerloose At NASA: The Moment of Truth...

The astronauts are sleeping. Have been since 8pm.

They're supposed to wake up at 4am to start throwing stuff in a suitcase. I truely hope they were away from facebook or youtube when NASA posted this video to its facebook page around 6pm.

That, my friends, is a lightning bolt hitting a water tower on launch pad 39A... the pad that Atlantis currently sits, waiting to be blasted into low orbit.

According to NASA it pierced the earth some 515 feet away from the shuttle. 

All the genius scientists and engineers inspected the site and said no damage was done to the pad or the shuttle or any of the literally one million moving parts that have to synchronize to send the vehicle screaming out of the atmosphere in a firey rodeo.    

However, is i'm an astronaut and I see that, I'm thinking to myself "That's a little close for comfort..."

HA... nothing like that has ever crossed these minds.

Good luck Atlantis... let's see a launch!

Turnerloose At NASA... Thoughts on the Weather

This is a picture of the 3 page, small font, front and back weather procedure for a shuttle launch.

I will not go into everything, seeing as how the "Near Freezing Temperatures" section won't apply.

Basically what we need to worry about as we get to launch day will be thunderstorms and rain.

Thunderstorms can't be within ~30 miles of the launch site... they'll scrub right away if storms are popping up around launch time which is around 11:26 a.m. Friday.

They'll also scrub if there is the potential for rain at any of the emergency landing sites, the shuttle can't land in rain (but the NASA weather team doesn't feel like that should be an issue on launch day).

So that leaves us with the big issue: The timing of thunderstorms.

As we all know, the heat of the afternoon is when things get popping here in the southeast, but especially in Florida, where we're dealing with not one, but two seabreeze fronts. And where you get seabreeze collision, you get uplift and you get the big, tall puffy clouds that make rain and a whole lotta electricity. (See also: Florida, Lightning Capital of the Country).

When will the seabreeze develop? Well that depends on how quickly we heat up that day, as well as interaction with an "easterly wave." So while seabreezes may spark a few tstorms around 3:00 or 4:00 on many occasions, that wave may push it a little earlier. Which could mean lightning around launch.

As of this blogging, the NASA weather forecast, which is given by the U.S. Air Force Range Weather Operations Facility just down the road from Kennedy, is calling for a 60% chance of thunderstorms at the time of launch.

That translates into a 60% chance of delay for the final shuttle launch.

The better option would be Saturday morning.

The best option, though, looks to come on Sunday. Drier air will be punching into the Space Coast.

So, if we are a no-go on Friday, it looks like at worst we're talking about a Sunday departure for Atlantis and her crew.

But, come on, it's just a 60% chance, right?

Turnerloose At NASA...

Self portraits are an art that needs to be lost 

I took a very thorough and extensive shower this morning. But before you go hollerin’ “T-M-I, Lewis,” just wait a few sentences.

I was going to NASA, and knew the clearance procedure would be equally thorough/extensive. Surprisingly I was wrong… but we’ll talk about that later.

Today I took my first ever trip into Kennedy Space Center. I drove down I-95 from Jacksonville most of the way. But decided I had seen enough depressing concrete and turned off at Exit 220 – Titusville.

I figured I’d take Highway 1 down to the KSC media gate to get my pass, that way I could see the guts of some of the towns , including Titusville itself, but some of the “Port” towns as well.

You ever drove through a place and feel like you went back in time?

Every time I drive through my beloved Florida Keys (the upper ones especially) I feel like I’m going through towns that the 1990s and 2000s forgot about. I mean that in a good way.

I almost feel like driving the Space Coast on Highway 1, I was traveling through some towns that the 1980s forgot about as well.

Old motel after old motel for the 15 or so miles from Titusville to Cocoa.

One was called the Apollo Inn, and it was most definitely built between 1963-1972 (years of the Apollo space program).



The Apollo Inn as I'm driving down U.S. 1



I mention this mainly because it’s a part of the country that exploded in the early 60s, with the manned space-flight program. People flooded into these towns, paid top dollar to eat fried seafood, buy cheesy t-shirts, and spend the night at what was then top notch lodging.

An old seafood shack was gutted. I saw only one open t-shirt store.

What happened? Did the space program lose its shebang, its tourist-attracting luster?

“Awwww, there will always be another rocket, or shuttle going up,” someone may say.

With the reality that there in fact will not be another shuttle launch, at least not how we know it, a million people are expected to flood into these towns. The Apollo Inn has NO VACANCY this week, as does every hotel/motel/condo from here to Epcot.

One last hurrah guys… then what? Then what’s going to happen to these towns that are already quite sleepy?

I’m not trying to take a political stand on the fiscal sense the shuttle program makes, I’m just going to miss it. And after a trip down U.S. Highway 1 from Titusville to Cocoa Beach, I’d say every town in between will miss it too. I’ll be interested to see if the 2010s take Exit 220, stop by, look around and then hop right back on I-95.



 



Hey, Arlene... Is that you?

It's day 1 of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Slap me five.

And on the first day we've got what looks a lot like a tropical system. A little dip in pressure, some thunderstorms with some minor circulation. Best I can tell, winds are gusting to around 25 to 30 mph according to the closest buoy.

The St. Augustine Buoy is going to give us the best readings until this thing actually moves over land.

Here's screen cap of the National Data Buoy Center info for the St. Augustine Buoy...

That's the rough position of this system... and no, those readings do not look all that impressive.

Right now, the best forecast track for this brings it through St. Johns, Flagler and Volusia County... with the strongest of the system moving in between St. Augustine Beach and Daytona Beach. Worst of it moving over and along I-4.

Winds won't make it to the 38 mph sustained mark to qualify this as a tropical depression before it moves across Florida today. It needs to spin over those warm Gulf Stream waters for a little longer, but it's 20 mph WSW track won't allow that. Right now sustained winds are at 15.5 knots, which is roughly 18 mph. Hmmmm... highly doubtful that this is Arlene. Highly doubtful indeed. Though that 30% circle in the pic at the top of the page is very interesting to see... that's an awfully high percentage from the NHC, at least in my opinion.

Still, this system could spark a few strong thunderstorms and some blinding downpours of rain from St. Augustine over to Putnam and down to Flagler in the First Coast News viewing area.

Meanwhile, the chance of rain for the Jacksonville area holds at around 30% today... mainly because of a line of storms developing off shore moving in.

A quick 2011 Tropical Guide. Plus, who's sitting in the Lyons' Den?

It's hurricane season... well, it will be Wednesday (tomorrow as of this writing). So what better time than to actually write about the weather. I am, after all, a complete weather nerd and, despite some previous posts where I go a little AWOL, I've decided that it's now MY time to throw the name in the Jacksonville Weather Ring. Don't worry, there's plenty of irreverence at the end of this post... just keep on reading, or scroll down if you like. 

I've got my eyes on the tropics... as does every other meteorologist at the station. There is something worth keeping watch of in the Caribbean, off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Two things in this map worth mentioning... first is the system way down south. It's rather "blobby" and VERY unorganized looking right now, wind shear way  is ripping it apart. However, a couple of computer models show this getting better organized (though moving very very slowly) and becoming the first tropical cyclone of the season. If it holds up it would be called Arlene.

Then there's the cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of the Carolinas that's organized around a rather weak area of low pressure. Here's a larger picture:

I added my childlike red drawings to the map to show basic movement of these t-storms as well as an approaching cold front. For now, it looks like the front will do little to keep the storms away from the region, so as we move into Wednesday afternoon, we could see some showers and storms moving in from the coast.

Going tropical again:

Here's a list of storm names for the 2011 season: I'm going to do my very best to never refer to any of them as a "he/she" or "him/her." That's a bit too personal for monsters that can kill:

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

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PART DEUX... Who's this dude?

Interns have arrived... the annual summer rite of passage for each and every serious journalism student who actually wants a job.

Yep, if you want to work in TV you better get the internship. And you better pray that you don't get the desk next to me, because you will appear in multiple video blog posts and be asked ridiculous questions like, "What do you want to be when you grow up?"

Ha... I actually asked an intern that today. What do you want to be when you grow up? I felt like a grizzled news vet. I always felt like the "....grow up?" question was strange to ask a college student. Mainly because they are mostly grown up. Also, that question typically gets responses like "fireman" or "spaceman" or "lion keeper."

It just goes on and on.

I chuckle.

Thanks for reading and watching.

Mahalo,
Lew

A Couple Quick Photos from Jacksonville, NC

We had such a short amount of time to get to know Jacksonville, NC I feel cheated.

We pulled into town 15 minutes before going live in Good Morning Jacksonville, then got to work on our Jacksonville to Jacksonville special that's going to air during the 11:00 news tonight.

We did get to meet with a Jacksonville, Florida man who is stationed at Camp Lejeune. He was a funny guy, and brutally honest about things. Which I love.

His father, step-mother, siblings and future wife all live in Jacksonville, Florida still... I hope they get the chance to see their son.

On a complete side note:

We parked in a Wal-Mart for the better portion of the day. It was our home base.

Here's what was parked right by our RV... I'll leave all commentary to you:

This was a distraction for the first 4 hours of my day, that's how mature I am

Then there were the people that were attracted to our RV. You see, we have a large QR code on the back, and naturally people are curious about it. One woman spoke too quickly for me to get a pic with her. However, this gentleman was glad to stop and give us his best Arnold Schwarzenegger.

This guy made my day. He stopped by while I was locked out of the RV for a short period of time...

I got back in.

Mahalo,
Lew